Gholam Ali PARHAM

Professor

Update: 2025-03-03

Gholam Ali PARHAM

دانشکده علوم ریاضی و کامپیوتر / گروه آمار

P.H.D dissertations

  1. کنترل تصادفی بهینه تزریق سرمایه در مدل کرامر-لاندبرگ تحت ساختار وابستگی تنک شده
    محمد اذرباد 1403
  2. یک فرآیند خود بازگشتی دلاپورت مرتبه اول
    مریم شالباف 1400
  3. مقایسه های تصادفی سیستم های سری و موازی در بعضی متغیرهای تصادفی مستقل ناهمگن با توزیع های تعمیم یافته طول عمر
    مولود عبدالهی 1400
  4. تعمیم برخی از توابع مفصل
    حكیم بكری زاده 1393

    Copulas are functions that link multivariate distribution function to marginal distribution functions and separate marginal distribution from dependency structure. Copulas can be used as suitable tool for modeling dependent variables. But there are some restrictions in modeling data and construction methods using copula functions.
    In some copula functions, because of limited dependency domain, to model high dependency variables is not possible. For example, about FGM copula, one of the most applicable copulas, dependency range is limited. Also, the copula functions consider certain dependency structure while we may face with a weight of dependency structures and more important than two former cases, symmetry of copula function; Symmetry of copula functions state that the interested variables play the same role in their joint distribution function, while this precondition, apart from restricting the application domain of the copula function, cannot describe some models.
    In this thesis, to remove mentioned limitations, an extension of the FGM copula in terms of polynomial section with degrees of to improve dependency domain based on extreme value copula is introduced. Also, to predominate symmetry restriction in copula functions, an asymmetric class from introduced generalization will be presented. In sequel, another asymmetric class of generalized GB copula in terms of the definition of the different function from uniform marginal distribution function is introduced, whose some of properties will be presented and generated sub-families are evaluated by modeling the risk of diabetes as application and simulation. finally, in order to upgrade the certain dependency structure, a generalization of Clayton copula under weighted bivariate functions with weighted dependency structure will be presented and its applications in hydrology science will be surveyed. Also, we study measurements and dependency concepts in introduced classes. Generally, generalization of copula functions is an approach in introducing classes of copula functions that leads to extract new properties of copula function. These generalizations can be applied to generate new sub-families of copulas and improve domain of dependency measures. Also, generated sub-families from these generalizations are applicable in modeling dependent data in different fields of science. Generating copulas is useful in constructing bivariate distributions with different marginal distribution functions and weighted bivariate distributions.

     


  5. برآورد تابع چگالی مفصل از طریق موجک چندگانه
    امید چترابگون 1393

    Examining the dependency structure and constructing multivariate distributions are a vital subject in analyzing uncertainty between varies phenomena. Copula function link marginal distribution and try to discover the dependency structure and build multivariate distribution. Finding suitable copula function is always a concern such that this challenge highlighted by increasing the dimension of variables and restriction in constructing multivariate copula. In other words, difficulty in determining multivariate distribution translates one difficult problem into another. Lack of suitable goodness of fit test in selecting optimal copula faced this problem with more difficulty. To settle this concern, nonparametric copula introduced. Empirical copula introduced as one of first nonparametric copulas. It is highly discontinuous, not of much use in practice. Kernel-based approach proposed as another nonparametric copula that enjoys good properties but their computations entail non-trivial implementation issues. Also, bandwidth selection more discussed in the literature such that there is not agreement about it. It is proposed another nonparametric method to estimate copula density functions based on two dimensional orthonormal series expansion which depends on selecting cut point. The main downfall of these bases as spline method is their infinite support which demanding a large number of terms in the series expansion. The advent of wavelets enhanced using orthonormal series for copula density estimation. In statistical methodologies, density estimation and copula density estimation using wavelet introduced as suitable nonparametric estimation. A known characteristic of wavelet functions is that they cannot be symmetric, orthogonal and compact support at the same time while multiwavelets overcome this disadvantage. These properties highlight the usefulness of the multiwavelet in order to approximate copula density functions. \\ In this thesis, we estimate copula density using multiwavelets as vector-valued type of wavelets and use as nice nonparametric estimation of copula density. Multiwavelets by Possessing three appropriate properties at the same time, high smoothness and high approximation order properties, can be more precise in copula density approximation. Due to orthogonality properties in multiwavelet, approximation coefficients could be easily determined. Compact support property in multiwavelet causes a good level of approximation achieves with less terms and symmetric property leads to a nice approximation in local and global symmetry. The presented approximation could be followed using different multiwavelets. We evaluate our approximation method using the mean integrated square error (MISE), the point wise error (PWE) and the AIC criteria. Finding results reveal that copula density approximation is better than scalar wavelet. We make this approximation method more accurate by using multiresolution analysis that balance between using terms and desired approximation. According to the finding results, in low resolution level, multiwavelet estimate copula density better that wavelet and converge to the underlying copula faster than wavelet. We simulate from the approximated models, and validate our approximation using the simulation results to recover the same dependency structure of the original data. Moreover, we apply Legendre multiwavelet as a polynomial type of multiwavelets with simple closed form in order to approximate copula density functions such that its powerfull smoothness provides a nice approximation. The support of Legendre multiwavelet is defined on interval $[0,1]$ as copulas that are normalized to have the support on the unit square and uniform marginal. This is a reason that the integration of the estimated copula density has been always one and do not require correction. We then apply presented method, estimating copula density through multiwavelets, to approximate the multivariate copula density and multivariate distribution using pair-copula as a flexible graphical model. Finally, we apply presented method to model a dataset of financial and actuarial data.


  6. برآورد پارامتر توزیعهای طول عمر با استفاده از داده های سانسور شده فازی
    عباس پاك 1393

    In reliability studies and lifetime testing experiments, we may encounter instances in which the lifetime of units has been reported as imprecise quantities. The classical statistical methods for estimating the parameters of lifetime distributions are not appropriate to deal with such imprecise cases. In such circumstances, using the theory of fuzzy sets, such imprecise data can be modeled with fuzzy sets. In this thesis, the parameter estimation of lifetime distributions based on fuzzy data is studied. Exponential distribution, Rayleigh distribution and Weibull distribution are survival models which are popular due to their flexibility and have many applications in reliability analysis. In the research literature, estimating the parameters of these modeles based on maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods have been studied. In this thesis, generalization of these methods for estimating the lifetime distribution parameters based on fuzzy data will be done.
    In many lifetime testing studies, if the experimenter wants to observe and record the failure times of all units, he must consider the time of experiment as the maximum lifetime of units in the test, that in most cases it is virtually impossible. Therfore, we deal with samples in which complete information of sample units are not recorded for some reasons.We define this constraints arising in the sample as censor. The most common types of censoring schemes in the studies are: type I censoring, type II censoring, progressive type I censoring, progressive type II censoring, hybrid type I censoring, hybrid type II censoring and hybrid progressive type II censoring. Statistical inference based on these censoring plans have been considered by many statisticians. The research results presented in the studies are based on the assumption that the observed lifetime data are crisp values, but in most practical applications we may be faced with imprecise data. In this thesis, we consider the problem of estimating the parameter of lifetime distributions based on imprecise censored data. We first model the imprecise observations of life testing experiments with fuzzy sets and present a new generalization of the likelihood function under different censoring schemes. Assuming that the lifetime distributions of the test units are exponential and Rayleigh distributions, we obtain the estimation of the distribution parameters based on maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. Then, we examine the performance of proposed methods using simulation studies and practical examples.
    In the discussion of statistics, comparisons between quantitative and different societies have always been an important place. Essentially, a substantial part of statistical issues is devoted to introducing methods of comparison. This subject has a special importance in survival analysis and reliability theory and a variety of comparison methods have been studied by researchers. Using probabilistic models of stress-strength, , is one type of comparison between the two variables that has received much attention in recent decades. According to the definition of the reliability of a system, one can say that referes to the reliability of a system in which random variables and are the stress and strength of the system. Parameter estimation of based on maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches, when and are statistically independent random variables and their observations are reported in the form of imprecise quantities, are the other objectives of this thesis.
     


Master Theses

  1. فرایندهای خودبازگشتی مقدار صحیح مرتبه‌ی اول با نوآوری‌های سری‌توانی تعمیم‌یافته با پارامتر آماسیده
    فروغ زاده دباغ 1402
  2. مدل¬سازی و نظارت فرایند خودبازگشتی مرتبه اول صحیح مقدار با توزیع نوآوری¬های پواسون آماسیده هندسی
    یقطان داخل عطشان 1402
  3. یک مدل خودبازگشتی مقدار صحیح مرتبه اول با نوآوری های بِل
    محمدرضا غانمی 1401
  4. فرآیند خودبازگشتی صحیح مقدار مرتبه اول دو پارامتری با عملگر نازک دوجمله ای و نوآوری های سری توانی
    زهره رنجبر 1401
  5. فرآیند خودبازگشتی مرتبه اول صحیح مقدار با نوآوری های پواسن تعمیم یافته
    مهسا زارع برات پور 1401
  6. مدل های اتورگرسیو-میانگین متحرک خطی تعمیم یافته با توزیع پاسخ دوجمله ای منفی
    سیده فاطمه موسوی نسب 1398
  7. مدل های اتورگرسیو میانگین متحرک خطی تعمیم یافته پواسن
    هیله زهیری 1397
  8. یک فرآیند پواسون خودبازگشتی مرتبه 2 با ساختار فصلی
    الهام رامزی 1395


    In this thesis a non-negative integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) process with the seasonal structure of second order is introduces which is an extension of the standard INAR(2) model. It should be noted that the marginal distribution of the process is considered as Poisson.
    The main properties of the model are derived such as its stationary and autocorrelation function (ACF). The conditional least squares and conditional maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters are studied and their asymptotic properties are established. A Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to evaluate and compare the performances of these estimators for finite sample sizes.
    In general, the empirical results indicate that, the conditional maximum likelihood estimator produse much better performance in terms of bias and mean square error. Finally, the model is fitted to a real set data.
     


  9. برآورد توزیع زمان اصابت و نرخ وقوع در فرآیندهای نیمه مارکف پنهان
    حسین جولایی 1394

    Stochastic process is one of the widely-used concepts which has been utilized for many years in engineering sciences and scientific studies. Semi-markov process and particularly, hidden semi-markov process are examples of such stochastic processes. The property of being hidden is derived from not being able to observe a sequence of the states of a process. The structure of a hidden Semi-markov model is in such a way that it has basic Semi-markov process. In contrast to hidden markov models, a hidden Semi-markov model suffers no limitation in any states in distributing sojourn times. Each state might include a series of observations and the length of each observation is an accidental variable. It is mostly employed in Genetics to predict genes as well as in the environment to forecast wind direction, rainfall, and earthquake. Reliability is another domain explored by Semi-markov processes and resulted in accurate modeling. It is widely-used in technical issues and mechanical devices. Hitting time distribution and Occurrence Rate are reliability indexes and in general are especially important to examine all Semi-makov modeling. ‎‎This study aims to examine non-parametric estimation of transmission probabilities, Semi-Markov kernel and their dependent functions by introducing counting processes and consequently with special empirical estimators for them. Finally, some applications of Semi-Markov modeling as well as hidden Semi-Markov modeling is proposed for earthquakes.


  10. برآورد احتمال های انتقال در مدل های نیم مارکف چند حالتی با سانسور
    بهروز ایسپره 1394

    Semi-Markov processes most especially the multi-state semi-Markov ones have been
    recently received attention as they are extensively used in econimics, engineering,
    medicine and industry. The inference of such processes are there for of particular
    significance. The present study investigates the non parametric and semi parametric
    estimates for transition probabilities and semi-Markov kernel. Using the counting processes and estimated survival functions, non parametric estimate was done performed.
    Semi-parametric esimation was performed through the renewal processes and Cox regression. First, the covariates were added to the semi-Markov with Cox regression.
    After estimating Cox regression coefficients, the siem-Markov kernel was obtained utilizing the cumulative hazard function and Cox regression coefficients. The transition
    probabilities was then estimated based on the convolution of both kernel and survival
    function. Finally, semi and non paramertic estimation were obtained for leukemia
    data, or BMT. The findings show that treatment of bone marrow transplantation has
    not been effective in the majority of treated patients and the probability of the death
    is greater then 0.4 in each state. In other words, the treatment delays the death only.


  11. مدل بندی بر اساس ساختار مفصل زوجی با گراف غیرمدور جهت دار غیرگوسی
    نوید دهداركارسیدانی 1392

     Graphical models provide a powerful tool in multivariate statistical analysis aimed at modelling the conditional independence structure of a family of random variables. The conditional independence restrictions observed by a graphical model can be conveniently summarized in a graph whose vertices represent the variables and whose edges indicate interrelations between these variables. One of the graphical models that are particularly interesting known as Bayesian networks, whose Markov properties can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Despite the broad scope of applicability, however, graphical modelling of continuous random variables has mainly been limited to the multivariate normal distribution.
    In this thesis, we study non Gaussian directed acyclic graph construction, that the conditional independence properties are used for constructions of the pair copula. By pair-copulas have shown that every continuous multivariate distribution associated with a DAG can be decomposed into a family of bivariate conditional and non-conditional distributions, which correspond to the edges of the underlying graph and marginal distribution, which correspond to the vertex of the graph. The proposed methods are finally applied to modelling financial return data of Brazil. The result shows that the non-Gaussian directed acyclic graph is better than the Gaussian directed acyclic graph models. Also, this model has fewer copulas in decomposition with respect to D-Vine Model.


  12. مقایسه برآورد هیل و برآورد نیرومند GLM در توزیع نوع پارتو
    مرضیه رویگری 1392
  13. مقایسه آزمون های نیکویی برازش برای تابع مفصل
    زینب بهباش 1392
  14. روند موفقیت در یک دنباله از متغیرهای تصادفی تبادل پذیر جزئی
    بهاره عزیزی جبارابادی 1391
  15. ارزیابی حافظه ی بلند مدت با در نظر گرفتن تغییرات ساختاری و کاربرد آن در داده های نرخ ارز
    پریسا مسجدی 1391
  16. وابستگی دمی با تابع مفصل
    احمد حیدری بهنوییه 1390
  17. مدل مارکف پنهان برای پیش بینی روند قیمت
    مهران رحمانی 1390
  18. اولین زمان گذر فرآیند پواسن فیلترشده با تابع شکل نمایی
    صغری بهلوری حجار 1389
  19. اولین زمان گذر در فرایند های پاداش با تابع پاداش غیرخطی
    امید چترابگون 1389
  20. برآورد ماکسیم درستنمایی پارامترهای مدل مارکوف پنهان و نیمه مارکوف پنهان
    زینب قلیزاده گزور 1389
  21. احتمالات ورشکستگی و شکستن کران لاندبرگ با خسارت‌های وابسته
    ابوذر بازیاری 1386
  22. بررسی کاربرد فرآیند شاخه‌ای و توابع درستنمایی در تامین سلامت عمومی جامعه
    محسن حسینی 1385
  23. سرمایه‌گذاری بهینه برای مدیریت دینامیک مخاطرة بیمه‌گر: مینیمم کردن احتمال ورشکستگی بیمه‌گر
    سهیل شكری فشتالی 1384
  24. مدل‌های توزیع تاخیری و کاربرد این مدل‌ها در مدل‌بندی تابع مصرف خصوصی در کشور
    فرهاد مرادی 1384
  25. روشی برای بدست آوردن توزیع هزینه کل روی طول عمر یک فرایند تصادفی
    مرضیه زمانی علویجه 1383
  26. هموارسازی هسته‌ای تابع نوسان نگار با استفاده از اختلاف کوبلک- لیبر و ارزیابی میزان بهینگی آن
    سحر درنیانی 1383
  27. فرایندهای مخاطره و احتمال ورشکستگی
    نادر مظاهری‌تهرانی 1382